THE BLOG

Antony Slumbers 11/8/24 Antony Slumbers 11/8/24

The New Glass Bead Game: AI and the Search for Synthesis

In The Glass Bead Game, Hermann Hesse presents an idealised world devoted to intellectualism and synthesis. Set in the fictional province of Castalia, the novel follows Joseph Knecht, a scholar immersed in a sophisticated game that combines music, mathematics, art, science, and philosophy into a single, harmonious pursuit. This “Glass Bead Game” represents the ultimate intellectual challenge, demanding mastery across disciplines and the ability to draw connections between them. Castalian scholars devote themselves fully to this intellectual life, aspiring to reach a level of understanding that transcends individual knowledge and creates a universal language of human achievement.

However, Hesse also warns of the limitations of pure intellectualism. Knecht eventually questions Castalia's detachment from the real world, sensing the dangers of a life solely devoted to abstract thought. This tension—the pull between contemplation and engagement—resonates strongly in our AI-driven world. Like Castalian scholars, we have access to tools that could elevate our understanding, expanding human knowledge and creative potential to new heights. But, as with Castalia, there's a risk of disengagement from real-world challenges if we use AI solely to streamline tasks rather than as a means to enhance our cognitive and creative faculties.

In today’s world, our relationship with AI is often imagined as a “centaur model”—where human and machine work together but remain separate entities, with humans retaining control over the intellectual journey. However, Hesse’s work points toward an even deeper integration. By adopting a “cyborg” mindset, we could think of AI as part of our extended cognitive system, seamlessly blending it into every aspect of our intellectual and practical lives. AI, as a fully integrated thinking partner, has the potential to expand our minds, help us solve complex problems, and push us beyond the limits of our individual intelligence. But this relationship requires that we approach AI not just as a tool for efficiency but as an intellectual companion—one that actively supports and strengthens our ability to think, create, and innovate.

One of the key challenges in achieving this integration is the human tendency toward shortcuts. Rather than using AI to think more deeply, there’s a risk of using it simply to offload cognitive work. This approach undermines our agency, leaving us passively dependent on AI instead of actively collaborating with it. When we treat AI merely as a shortcut, we diminish our own intellectual engagement and risk losing control over our cognitive journey. To truly benefit from AI, we must resist this impulse to delegate thinking and instead embrace AI’s potential to enhance our cognitive abilities, helping us approach problems with greater depth and insight.

To retain agency over AI, we must cultivate a mindset that values curiosity, critical thinking, and human-centered skills. By focusing on problem-solving, analytical thinking, and data-driven insight, we can engage with AI in a way that enhances, rather than diminishes, our cognitive capabilities. This requires a deliberate effort to integrate AI as a collaborator, one that challenges us, refines our thinking, and encourages us to approach the world with curiosity and creativity. In this way, we uphold the spirit of the Glass Bead Game—striving to blend art, science, and philosophy into a unified intellectual pursuit that enriches both human and artificial intelligence.

Ultimately, by approaching AI with a curious and disciplined mindset, we ensure that we retain control over our intellectual journey, creating and curating AI companions that reflect and amplify our deepest values and aspirations. This path allows us to live up to the ideals of The Glass Bead Game—where knowledge, creativity, and human insight converge in a harmonious pursuit of truth and understanding.

Antony Slumbers 10/3/24 Antony Slumbers 10/3/24

Real Estate as Maven

Since 2015 I‘ve been talking about how ‘The Real Estate Industry is no longer about Real Estate’. In the sense that office occupancy, even back then (it’s not just a post Covid phenomena) was hovering around 40-50% and a similar figure stated that their offices failed to enable them to be productive. These statistics, from Leesman, were screaming from the rooftop that the office ‘Product’ needed an upgrade, and it wasn’t just about the real estate.

My talks at the time ended with two slides. One saying ‘The future of real estate is in creating places of inspiration’ and the other ‘The office is dead - long live the Imaginarium’.

This was soon to morph into years of espousing for #SpaceasaService - spaces that ‘however procured provide the spaces and services appropriate to the ‘job to be done’ of every individual, as and when they need it.’

Nearly a decade on, all of this needs an update. And that update is to move beyond thinking about ‘Space as a Service’ to thinking of ‘Real Estate as Maven’.

Within the real estate industry we have a requirement to divine the future. What matters technologically today matters less than what will matter ‘one development lifecycle’ ahead. Given that any significant project can easily take 3-10 years we have to consider how the world might be some way off.

Over the last half century that hasn’t been so hard, as technology has been moving fast (Moore’s Law will be 60 next year) but from a low base. Doubling tiny amounts of computational power doesn’t make that much difference. Today however we are doubling high levels of compute power, so each doubling is suddenly highly meaningful. In fact it is much more meaningful than this because, as Jensen Huang (CEO of Nvidia) stated recently, we are almost running at Moore’s Law Squared at the moment. The power of his companies chips (which are the foundational tool for AI) has increased 1000X in just the last 8 years. The amount of data we have to work with has grown 10X over the last decade, and the size of AI models has increased 10X every year for the last 10 years.

So, in a typical Moore’s Law decade we can expect to end with 100X the computational power that we started with. But over the next decade that might well be 1000X.

This is non-trivial.

Not much stays the same at these rates of change.

What we now need to do is decide what we believe won’t change, what will, and how to accommodate both.

From my own experience I am increasingly convinced that we are moving from a technological Battenberg Cake to an Eton Mess. In the former, ingredients, and characteristics, are neatly defined. This square is X, and that Y. In an Eton Mess all is mixed up. There is not X or Y, there is just Z.

As this relates to how we will work with AI and other advanced technologies, the point is that we are likely to become less Centaurs and more Cyborgs. Instead of us doing A and ‘the machines’ B, we will intertwine our capabilities and do things together.

However, and this feels paradoxical but is true, this means as technology develops exponentially we need to develop our own human skills exponentially. We both need to become ‘more human’ and more at home with working intimately with ‘the machines’.

Because there is an AI Creativity Challenge. Based on current research, AI does improve everyone’s creativity and ability to generate ideas but this comes at the cost of lower variation and novelty. AI makes us all smarter, but in the same way. AI also tends to lead many to be lazy, and unwittingly homogenous. The AI’s ideas or answers are more than ‘good enough’ so one does not need to expend too much cognitive energy. Unwittingly people are producing better ideas but losing their differentiation. So, in effect, becoming dumber.

What is both a necessity, and a great opportunity, is to develop new thinking skills and behaviours whereby we can leverage AI for truly novel creativity. We need to prioritise critical thinking and synthesis skills.

Which also means we have a need for environments that not only help us foster distinct ideas but also actively cultivate our human cognitive abilities. We need to evolve our environments, our education and our working practices to complement AI, not become slaves to it.

Which is the genesis of the "Real Estate as Maven" Concept.

It is ‘an innovative approach to real estate that transforms physical spaces into dynamic, intelligent ecosystems designed to actively facilitate human and organisational success. It integrates cutting-edge technology, adaptive physical environments, and human-centred services to deliver measurable outcomes in productivity, wellbeing, innovation, and connectivity.’

It involves moving beyond passive space provision to active facilitation of human potential. It provides a vision for how real estate can evolve to meet the complex needs of a rapidly changing world, where the lines between physical and digital, work and life, are increasingly blurred.

For instance: "Imagine a product design team working in a Maven space. As they brainstorm, AI systems analyse their conversations and sketches in real-time, providing relevant information and suggestions. However, unlike traditional AI assistants, the Maven's systems are designed to highlight divergent thinking. When it detects that team members are converging on similar ideas, it might introduce unexpected stimuli - perhaps changing the room's lighting to mimic a different environment, or displaying images of nature that are tangentially related to the problem at hand. These subtle interventions are designed to nudge human creativity in new directions, while AI continues to support with data and analysis. The result is a blend of AI-enhanced efficiency and human-driven novelty.

‘Real Estate as Maven’ has 13 core characteristics:

Active Facilitation: Unlike traditional passive real estate, it plays a proactive role in enabling the success of its occupants. It anticipates needs, suggests connections, and provides resources.
Outcome-Focused Design: Every aspect of the space is designed with specific, measurable outcomes in mind, such as enhanced productivity, improved wellbeing, or increased innovation.
Adaptive Environments: Physical spaces are highly flexible and can rapidly reconfigure to meet changing needs and support different modes of work or interaction.
Technology Integration: Cutting-edge technology is seamlessly embedded throughout the space, enhancing capabilities and experiences rather than being a separate component.
Human-Centred Services: A suite of services focused on supporting human needs and potential, from wellness programs to skill development opportunities.
Connectivity Catalyst: The space actively fosters connections between people, ideas, and resources, both within and beyond its physical boundaries.
Continuous Evolution: Built-in systems for gathering feedback and data analytics enable the space to learn and adapt over time, staying ahead of user needs.
Holistic Approach: Considers the whole person and the entire organisational ecosystem, not just work-related activities.
Sustainability Integration: Incorporates sustainable practices and technologies as a core part of its design and operation, not as an afterthought.
Experience Curation: Actively curates experiences (e.g., events, collaborations, learning opportunities) that add value for occupants.
Boundary Blurring: Blends traditionally separate realms such as work, learning, wellness, and social interaction.
Community Building: Promotes a sense of community and shared purpose among its occupants, whether within a single organisation or across multiple entities.
Human Potential Enhancement: Actively works to enhance human cognitive and creative capabilities through environmental design, technological integration, and tailored services.

And these core characteristics might manifest themselves in things like this:

Human-AI Collaboration Hubs:

Spaces designed for humans to work alongside AI systems, with intuitive interfaces for human-AI interaction
Areas equipped with advanced visualisation tools for complex data interpretation and decision-making
"AI sandboxes" where people can experiment with and develop new AI applications

Creativity and Ideation Spaces:

Environments designed to stimulate creative thinking and problem-solving
Tools and technologies that enhance brainstorming and idea development
Spaces that can capture and digitise spontaneous ideas for later refinement

Skill Development and Learning Centres:

Flexible spaces for continuous learning and skill development
Virtual and augmented reality training facilities
Areas for hands-on experimentation and prototyping

Wellness and Human Performance Optimisation:

Spaces and services focused on physical and mental wellbeing
Advanced diagnostics and personalised health optimisation programs
Stress reduction and cognitive enhancement facilities

Cultural and Artistic Expression Zones:

Areas dedicated to showcasing and creating art, music, and other forms of human expression
Spaces that celebrate cultural diversity and facilitate cross-cultural understanding
Facilities for performances and creative collaborations

Community Building and Social Impact Centres:

Spaces designed to foster a sense of community and shared purpose
Facilities for developing and implementing social impact initiatives
Areas that encourage intergenerational interaction and knowledge transfer

Now some of this might sound similar to what you’ve already seen or heard about but the distinctiveness of the ‘Real Estate as Maven’ concept lies in:

The depth and sophistication of implementation
The integration and interconnectedness of these elements
The shift from passive provision to active facilitation
The focus on measurable outcomes beyond just work productivity
The emphasis on continuous, data-driven evolution

In a later essay we’ll elaborate on this but the central point is whilst individual elements might not be entirely new, the combination of all these characteristics, implemented at a high level and working together as an integrated system, is what makes the "Real Estate as Maven" concept distinctive. It represents a paradigm shift from real estate as a product to real estate as a service and facilitator of success.

The ultimate goal of all of this is to enhance uniquely human qualities and capabilities. These ‘Maven’ spaces will be where the best companies, with the smartest employees, will want to be. They will be the antidote to the cognitive laziness that is likely to be a major feature of business a decade hence. They will be places that enable people to be happy, healthy, productive, and connected.

And this is a transformational opportunity for the real estate industry. Where the real estate provider becomes an integral part of their tenants' success strategies, moving far beyond the traditional landlord-tenant relationship. This model could create spaces that are not just desirable to come to, but essential for personal and professional thriving in the modern world.

That is what one would be selling and that is where the magnetism will lie. Is it the whole market - of course not. But is it the ‘best’ market to be in, undoubtedly yes. Real estate just as real estate has no future. It needs to be more. It can be more. And people will love it.

‘Real Estate as Maven’ - who’d have thought it even possible?

Antony Slumbers 9/14/24 Antony Slumbers 9/14/24

A blueprint for the future of rental living

Explore the convergence of technology, sustainability, and community-centric design in the evolving rental living sector over the next 5-15 years

This is based on a research project undertaken for Say Property and Hyperoptic, to coincide with the launch of their Managed Wi-Fi product.

This conversation is courtesy of Google’s ‘Audio Overview‘ technology.

Listen to the ‘podcast‘

Antony Slumbers 8/22/24 Antony Slumbers 8/22/24

The Consequences for Offices of Artificial Intelligence

Introduction

Making predictions is a mugs game, so they say. However, extrapolating out core trends, not fads, isn’t as precarious. Just as with #SpaceasaService, which I first wrote about over a decade ago, there are certain fundamental drivers of change which can only really end up in one direction. Timing might, often is, be a tricky nut to crack but certain inputs really do necessitate certain outputs. And so it is, I think, with the ongoing developments around Artificial intelligence.

Here we are going to look at what the key drivers of change are, and how they ‘will’ manifest themselves across the real estate industry, primarily focussing on the office market. My time focus is 4-7 years, the length of many office development projects. So we’re considering what might be towards the end of this decade.

To be clear, these drivers and consequences are what I believe will apply to the top end of the market. Maybe top 30%. In much of the market, change will come a lot slower, maybe even after complete obsolescence has set in. Of the offices and occupiers.

I am talking about the spaces and places leading companies, from start ups to multinationals, will want to occupy. Buildings that will support companies that are creating the future, that are leaning in to AI and other new technologies. Companies that are early adopters, to early majority. Companies that in 2030 will be where most are in 2040.

So let’s start with the key drivers that will impact the office market.

Key Drivers

1. AI-Enabled Decision Making:

Increasingly we will witness a democratisation of insights and decision-making processes. AI tools, often mediated through natural language interfaces, will provide data-driven insights to employees at all levels, not just top management. This will enable faster, more informed decisions across organisations and raise the potential for more innovative problem-solving as diverse perspectives are empowered by these AI driven insights. This may, nay should, lead to more agile and responsive organisational structures.

2. Automation of Routine Tasks:

AI will take over repetitive and some managerial functions, whilst freeing up, and augmenting, human workers to focus on more complex, creative, and strategic tasks (with an emphasis on those where humans retain primacy). This could lead to significant changes in job roles and required skill sets. There is great potential for increased productivity and efficiency in many business processes, as individuals and teams restructure their work to concentrate on where they truly can add value.

3. Enhanced Data Processing and Analytics:

We will be making more informed, real-time decisions. AI can process and analyse data much faster than humans (which is obvious) but more importantly AI can provide deeper insights and identify patterns that might be missed by human analysis. AI, or at least a major branch of AI, is all about prediction. Everywhere we should be able to raise the quantity, and dramatically lower the cost, of high quality predictions. This will both lead to more data-driven cultures within companies but also significantly raise the value of judgement. Machines are great at prediction - advanced humans likewise with judgement. Though note the caveat - advanced.

4. AI-Powered Collaboration Tools:

Now there is a huge market for them, a great deal of money and attention is being directed at developing improved, often AI powered, collaboration tools. Distributed, remote and hybrid working is only going to get easier, and therefore more effective. Anything done entirely remotely will be easy to distribute globally. Location will be meaningless for these tasks, though in practice most jobs will require meaningful human connection - after all few humans are so skilled that they alone can generate complete sets of value. And jobs that don’t require human connection will ultimately all be done by machines. AI will enable deep virtual connection and then it’ll be about ‘what else do we need’? One should assume that no-one needs to be located three feet apart: why might they want to is the key question?

5. Flattening of Organisational Hierarchies:

We’ll see a large reduction in traditional management layers, as AI takes over some traditional middle management functions like scheduling and performance monitoring. AI should enable more direct communication between top leadership and front-line employees and this could lead to more autonomous, self-managing teams. Ronald Coase wrote ‘The Nature of the Firm’ in 1937, and he focussed on ‘transition costs’, primarily:

Costs of negotiating and drawing up contracts
Costs of gathering information
Costs of monitoring and enforcing agreements

All of these are bullseyes for AI, predictive and generative. If machines can do them, there is no requirement for human managers to do the same. Being in this middle zone is a very dangerous place to be. As it will be done away with, or at least hugely reduced in scale.

6. Reimagining of Business Processes:

The mechanism for point 5 above will be the ‘Unbundling and rebundling’ of work processes. AI will allow us to fundamentally rethink how work is done and value is created. In fact it it won’t be until we undertake this process that real value will be derived from AI. We need to stop iterating on the past, powered as it was by certain technologies, and turn our eyes towards redesigning work around what these new technologies enable. The direct analogy is the introduction of the electric engine which replaced steam power - great productivity gains didn’t manifest themselves until factories were fundamentally redesigned to take advantage of multitudes of standalone electric powered machines. This process took four decades - with AI it’s likely to take one at most. One has to assume and plan for rapid change on this front.

7. Continuous Learning Requirements:

There is going to be a huge need for upskilling and reskilling. AI is developing at such a pace that we all need to over index on continuous learning, with a very strong emphasis on adaptability. Currently organisations are not investing in nearly enough training. For every CEO proclaiming their companies AI initiatives only about a third of them are actually running the necessary training programs. Talk is cheap - training has to be taken seriously. The leading companies do, and this will result in significant competitive advantage.

8. Sustainability Imperatives:

This is already happening but the imperative will only intensify. As each year passes they’ll be an increased focus on energy efficiency and sustainable practices. Predictive AI should be a major influence here as it is very good at optimising resource use, reducing waste and energy consumption. This is a rapidly developing area and we ‘know’ what needs to be done, and largely how to do it. A growing area is generating and accessing renewable energy. Expect to see a lot of investment in energy infrastructure, particularly solar power married to battery storage. Self sufficient buildings has to be the north star being aimed at.

9. Evolving Employee Expectations:

We are changing. Always have of course, but it does seem that the global pandemic did act as a catalyst for many people. Demand for work-life balance and meaningful work environments has definitely grown since 2020.

Employees increasingly seek purposeful work and better integration of work and personal life. There’s a growing importance of company culture, values, and social responsibility and an expectation for more flexible work arrangements and personalised work experiences. Some say ‘wait for the next recession and all of this will disappear’ but that ‘feels’ unlikely. Adapting to this change in zeitgeist is a major requirement for the real estate industry.

Companies need to lead, but work happens within real estate.

10. Balancing Intangible and Tangible Business Aspects:

Not everything is going virtual. Yes much of modern business is focussed on intangibles but there still exists an awful lot of physicality. Life science and biotechnology space is very fashionable an area today, but there are many other areas where physicality is important. Healthcare, advanced manufacturing, aerospace and defence, the creative industries, education, training, personalised hospitality. Key is understanding which industries have these ‘special’ characteristics that demand very bespoke space. Their requirements are particular but at least they do actually ‘need’ office space.

11. Changing Economic Models:

And finally they’ll be a strong driver of change as work becomes ever more atomised. We’re already seeing larger companies make increasing use of ‘contingent’ workers, and a thinning out of full time, fully integrated workers. Tech companies have laid off large numbers over the last few years, with seemingly no impact on productivity and instead rising share prices. Sure they over hired during Covid but nevertheless it does seem like less people are required to maintain a steady state. As early adopters of AI perhaps we are seeing in tech companies the consequences of individually more productive individuals. One simply needs less people when each person operates at 5-10X what their peers did a few years ago.

Consequences - Anticipated Changes and Developments

All of the above is very likely to occur. It will evolve over time, and some companies will operate like this much faster than others, but betting against it happening is surely high risk.

So what will be the consequences of Artificial intelligence for the real estate industry, especially those dealing with still the sectors largest asset class, offices. What will be the nature of demand in the years ahead?

1. Shift to Flexible, Adaptive Spaces:

We simply do not know how space is going to be used in 3, 5, 10 years time. 10 years equates to 100X more powerful computers. How do we design for that? So much depends what becomes possible. People will use space based on that, and that is ….. just guesswork.

So we will definitely need to create spaces that that maximally flexible and adaptable. Reconfigurable with modular furniture and movable partitions. Spaces that can easily transform from individual work areas to collaborative zones. Where exceptional integration of technology allows for quick reconfiguration of digital and physical resources. We will of course be using AI to assist in all this space optimisation, that will create new configurations having learnt from usage patterns.

2. Increase in Collaborative Areas:

Much more space will be dedicated to teamwork and cross-functional collaboration. Which will require a variety of meeting spaces catering to different group sizes and work styles, with integrated technology to support both in-person and virtual collaboration. Informal gathering spaces to encourage spontaneous interactions and idea sharing will be a top focus. Most of the space will be the ‘water cooler’. Every space will be designed to catalyse ‘Human’ skills and capabilities. We are in the office to do what the machines, the AI, cannot.

3. Emphasis on Learning and Development Spaces:

A key ‘want’ in future offices will be exceptional areas dedicated to continuous skill development. In-house learning centres or corporate universities will become common. These will integrate AI-powered learning tools and simulators, and will be flexible spaces that can accommodate various training formats (lectures, workshops, hands-on practice). In many ways our places of work will become places of learning.

4. Enhanced Technology Infrastructure:

Our buildings are going to incorporate a lot of AI. We are moving to a world of intelligent, self monitoring and self optimising assets. All of which requires a lot of data, transmitted at very low latency. So every building will need advanced digital infrastructure to support all of this. Robust, high-speed networks capable of handling increased data loads. Edge computing, where analytics and AI inference (the running of AI applications) is done locally on devices incorporated into the buildings fabric, or attached to it, is likely to become a big thing. For a variety of reasons: Reduced latency, improved privacy, bandwidth savings, reliability and energy efficiency. All of this requires a high spec building.

5. Integration of AI-Human Interaction Spaces:

Our buildings will have dedicated areas for employees to work with AI systems that are designed for privacy and focus. With specialised equipment and interfaces for optimal AI-human collaboration, including immersive AI environments using AR/VR technologies. We’ll see the emergence of new spatial design principles for these AI-human workspaces. All of this will be a key reason to come to the office - to use equipment not available anywhere else.

6. Data-Centric Infrastructure:

Despite, or indeed because of, the focus on human-centricity, we’ll become far more data centric. We might even start to see the Integration of data centres within office developments. Buildings will be designed with enhanced cooling and power capabilities to support data infrastructure. There is potential for data centre heat to be repurposed for office heating, improving energy efficiency and this may lead to new approaches in building design that treat data infrastructure as a core component.

7. Reduction in Traditional Management Spaces:

As discussed above middle management is set to diminish so we will need less offices for this layer. Former executive spaces will be converted into collaborative or multi-purpose areas. With flatter organisational structures companies have the potential to design more open, democratic workplaces.

8. Decentralised Decision-Making Hubs:

Specialised and distributed spaces equipped with AI tools for decision support will emerge. Large companies may have their own but smaller companies will rent them as needed. These will take the form of 'war rooms' or 'decision theatres' with advanced data visualisation capabilities and integrated AI assistants to facilitate rapid, data-driven decision making.

These spaces will be designed to support both in-person and remote participation in decision processes. AI is really good at ‘modelling’ and ‘simulating’ and over time we’ll all become conversant with how to run these operations, but they will require bespoke setup and operational support.

9. Reimagined Workflow Layouts:

Offices will be redesigned reflecting the new realities of unbundled and rebundled work processes. Spaces are likely to be organised around work functions rather than traditional departments with the creation of 'neighbourhoods' for different work modes (focus, collaboration, learning, socialising). As happens today but more so. We will see the integration of AI-powered workflow management systems into the physical environment. Examples being smart meeting rooms, intelligent desks and workstations, AI-assisted collaboration spaces, automated asset tracking, personalised productivity environments and Intelligent wayfinding. Overall, layouts will become much more fluid but much more intelligent.

10. Focus on Employee Experience and Wellbeing:

Enabling people to be as happy, healthy and productive as they are capable of being will be the primary aim of any place of work. What this means is #SpaceasaService - spaces that provide each individual with the best possible environment to do whatever it is that they need to do, whenever they need to do it. Personalised, optimised, customised. Offices are likely to be designed more like hospitality spaces, prioritising user experience.

11. Sustainability-Driven Design:

Obviously sustainability is a non negotiable for offices of the future. Fortunately AI-powered systems will be massively helpful in this area, as they are excellent for predictive management and optimisation, as well as interacting with internal and external data sources. The potential for AI to manage complex sustainability initiatives across entire buildings or campuses is great. We know what needs to be done here and AI is very much our friend in getting it done.

12. Hybrid Work Support:

Everywhere spaces will be designed to integrate in-person and remote workers seamlessly. We will create 'Zoom rooms' and other tech-enabled spaces for virtual collaboration, and provide hot-desking and hoteling systems to manage flexible office usage. AI-powered scheduling and space management tools will be widely adopted and we’ll have enhanced audio-visual technology throughout the office to support impromptu virtual connections. As this form of working becomes deeply embedded we’ll use AI-driven tools to maintain company culture and employee engagement. We’ll spend years thinking about hybrid work but eventually it’ll just become ….. work.

13. Evolution of Urban Office Hubs:

We’re going to see a lot of the transformation of traditional office buildings into mixed-use spaces and the integration of residential, retail, and recreational facilities within office complexes. Some exist already but 'vertical villages' in urban skyscrapers will become commonplace. As will the repurposing of excess office space for other uses (e.g., vertical farming, educational facilities, sports venues, whatever we can imagine).

There is great potential for AI to optimise space usage and transitions between these different functions. This will start to strongly influence urban planning and zoning/planning regulations, leading to much more integrated city designs. CBDs will die off (with very few exceptions) as we gravitate towards more decentralised, polycentric urban development. AI will be at the heart of how we redesign our cities, but the guiding principle will be human centricity.

14. Rise of Mixed-Use Developments:

Everywhere we’ll be integrating office, residential, retail, and recreational facilities with a view to creating self-contained ecosystems that support diverse needs of workers and residents. This blending of work and living spaces to support changing lifestyle preferences will utilise AI for community management and service optimisation as these will be complex environments. There is potential for new types of leasing or ownership models in these mixed-use developments and this may lead to the emergence of new property categories that defy traditional classifications.

15. Location Strategy Shifts:

But where will we work. Yes, still in our newly forming poly centric major cities, but also in areas with strong AI talent pools and research connections. Traditional CBDs will have to compete with these emerging tech hubs or university adjacent areas. At a national level companies will give consideration to locations with advantageous AI and data regulations. There will be a balancing of physical accessibility with digital connectivity in location decisions. All of this may lead to the emergence of new tier-2 city hotspots with good quality of life and strong tech ecosystems and could result in a redistribution of office demand across wider geographic areas. Anywhere that can fulfil the technical and talent requirements, and is a ‘nice place to be’, will thrive. Agglomeration remains important but ultimately the internet is the master agglomerator. We’ll have more optionality and qualitative factors will become increasingly important.

16. Security and Privacy Considerations:

The more AI mediated our world becomes the more vital will be the implementation of advanced cybersecurity measures. Spaces that are designed to ensure privacy for confidential AI-human interactions will be at a premium. There will be pervasive integration of physical security measures with AI-driven surveillance and access control systems. It is likely we’ll see the emergence of new standards and certifications for AI-secure office spaces

17. Globalisation of Workforce:

Today the era of globalisation is receding but this’ll be short lived. Office spaces will need to facilitate international collaborations and virtual team management. The creation of 'global collaboration hubs' with advanced communication technologies and that have 'follow-the-sun' work models will impact on current office usage patterns. Particularly in major cities, where multinationals tend to congregate, offices will become more 24 hour. A 15 minute City, with a 24 hour lifestyle is rather wonderfully local and global at the same time.

Conclusion

The future of the office is a fascinating paradox. As AI automates routine tasks and reshapes traditional work patterns, it simultaneously amplifies the need for spaces that prioritise human connection, creativity, and well-being.

The offices that will thrive in this new era won’t simply be vessels for technology; they'll be vibrant ecosystems designed to cultivate uniquely human capabilities. They will be flexible, adaptable, and deeply integrated with AI, yet always centred around the needs and experiences of their human occupants.

This transformation represents both a challenge and an unprecedented opportunity for the real estate industry. By embracing AI not as a replacement for human-centric design, but as a powerful tool to enhance it, we can create workspaces that are not only more efficient and sustainable, but also more inspiring, engaging, and ultimately, more human.

And, I may add, more valuable.

Agree? Disagree? What have I missed? What have I got wrong? Let me know in the comments.

And thanks for getting this far!

Antony

Antony Slumbers 7/30/24 Antony Slumbers 7/30/24

The AI Optimist's Vision: A Transformative Future for Real Estate?

I've been reading a provocative paper by ex OpenAI ‘Superalignment’ researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner titled "Situational Awareness". Now, Aschenbrenner isn't a household name in our industry, but his vision of AI progress is eye-opening, to say the least. It's the kind of forecast that makes you sit up and pay attention, whether you buy into it or not.

This 165 page paper has received a huge amount of coverage in the tech industry. And despite being wildly optimistic, some pushback but not as much as one might expect. I ‘think’ because it is possible. Maybe not likely, but possible.

Even if not right in terms of timing I think his direction of travel is spot on. And if it takes 16 years instead of six then all of this will probably happen whilst you are still working. Certainly your children will have to be dealing with the consequences, for good or ill.

What troubles me though is trying to get a grip on what this all means for real estate within just one cycle, maybe two. Here in London an unbuilt mega tower in the City of London has just applied to have its existing permission updated. Bigger, taller. Right next to an existing cluster of towers. If they get going it might be ready in 2030. Will anyone want such a thing by then? I’m totally ok with the notion that whatever happens we will be needing places of work, but will we want to work in ‘mono culture leviathans’? We’ll be needing places that catalyse human skills and I’m suspicious that these types of buildings will no longer have product/market fit.

What we want, and where we want it, and how we’ll use it all seem to me up for debate, and reinvention. Read below and let me know what you think we will need in this coming world.

These are Aschenbrenner’s 7 key trends:

2025-2026: AI Surpasses Human Experts

By 2025-2026, AI systems are expected to outperform human experts in raw problem-solving abilities across many domains. This is a critical milestone as it marks the point where AI transitions from being a tool that augments human capabilities to potentially replacing high-skilled knowledge workers in many tasks. For businesses, this means a dramatic shift in how work is done, with AI taking on increasingly complex and creative tasks previously thought to require human intellect. It could lead to significant productivity gains but also disrupt traditional workforce structures and skill requirements.

From Chatbots to Autonomous Agents

The evolution from current chatbot-style AI to autonomous agents represents a fundamental change in AI capabilities. While chatbots primarily respond to prompts, autonomous agents can proactively plan, reason, and execute complex multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. This shift enables AI to handle more sophisticated workflows, make decisions, and even manage other AI systems or robots. For businesses, this could mean AI systems that can autonomously manage projects, conduct research, or even run entire departments with human oversight, dramatically increasing operational efficiency and innovation potential.

Rapid Automation of Cognitive Tasks

As AI capabilities advance, we're likely to see a rapid acceleration in the automation of cognitive tasks across industries. This goes beyond simple repetitive tasks to include complex analytical work, creative processes, and strategic decision-making. The implications for businesses are profound - entire job categories may be transformed or eliminated, while new roles focused on AI management and oversight emerge. Companies that can effectively leverage this automation wave could gain significant competitive advantages in efficiency, cost reduction, and innovation speed.

Enhanced AI Reasoning and Memory

Improvements in AI reasoning capabilities and "memory" (the ability to retain and apply information over long periods) will lead to AI systems that can engage in more sophisticated problem-solving and long-term planning. This could result in AI assistants that truly understand context, can learn from past interactions, and provide increasingly valuable insights over time. For businesses, this means AI systems that can tackle complex, multi-faceted problems, assist in long-term strategic planning, and provide more nuanced and contextually relevant support across all levels of the organisation.

Breakthroughs in AI Training

Expected breakthroughs in AI training methods, such as more efficient algorithms or novel approaches to data utilisation, could dramatically accelerate AI development and reduce the resources required to create powerful AI systems. This could lower the barriers to entry for AI development and deployment, potentially democratising access to advanced AI capabilities. For businesses, this might mean more accessible and cost-effective AI solutions, enabling even smaller companies to leverage cutting-edge AI technologies to compete with larger enterprises.

2030: The Possibility of 'Superintelligent' Systems

The potential emergence of 'superintelligent' AI systems by 2030 - those significantly surpassing human capabilities across all domains - represents both an enormous opportunity and a significant risk. Such systems could solve currently intractable problems in science, medicine, and technology, driving unprecedented innovation and economic growth. However, they also raise profound ethical, security, and control issues. Businesses need to be prepared for a world where the capabilities of AI may far exceed human understanding, potentially reshaping entire industries and the nature of work itself.

Exponential Economic Growth

The combination of these AI advancements is expected to drive exponential economic growth, potentially far exceeding historical rates. This growth could be fuelled by dramatic increases in productivity, entirely new industries and business models enabled by AI, and breakthrough innovations across all sectors. For businesses, this represents an era of unprecedented opportunity but also intense competition and disruption. Companies that can successfully integrate and leverage these advanced AI capabilities may see explosive growth, while those that fail to adapt risk becoming obsolete at an accelerated pace.

So …. A pretty optimistic view of the future. Or maybe aggressive is a better word. Either way, we need to contemplate it.

Because it might just happen.