The AI Optimist's Vision: A Transformative Future for Real Estate?
Antony Slumbers / Midjourney
I've been reading a provocative paper by ex OpenAI ‘Superalignment’ researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner titled "Situational Awareness". Now, Aschenbrenner isn't a household name in our industry, but his vision of AI progress is eye-opening, to say the least. It's the kind of forecast that makes you sit up and pay attention, whether you buy into it or not.
This 165 page paper has received a huge amount of coverage in the tech industry. And despite being wildly optimistic, some pushback but not as much as one might expect. I ‘think’ because it is possible. Maybe not likely, but possible.
Even if not right in terms of timing I think his direction of travel is spot on. And if it takes 16 years instead of six then all of this will probably happen whilst you are still working. Certainly your children will have to be dealing with the consequences, for good or ill.
What troubles me though is trying to get a grip on what this all means for real estate within just one cycle, maybe two. Here in London an unbuilt mega tower in the City of London has just applied to have its existing permission updated. Bigger, taller. Right next to an existing cluster of towers. If they get going it might be ready in 2030. Will anyone want such a thing by then? I’m totally ok with the notion that whatever happens we will be needing places of work, but will we want to work in ‘mono culture leviathans’? We’ll be needing places that catalyse human skills and I’m suspicious that these types of buildings will no longer have product/market fit.
What we want, and where we want it, and how we’ll use it all seem to me up for debate, and reinvention. Read below and let me know what you think we will need in this coming world.
These are Aschenbrenner’s 7 key trends:
2025-2026: AI Surpasses Human Experts
By 2025-2026, AI systems are expected to outperform human experts in raw problem-solving abilities across many domains. This is a critical milestone as it marks the point where AI transitions from being a tool that augments human capabilities to potentially replacing high-skilled knowledge workers in many tasks. For businesses, this means a dramatic shift in how work is done, with AI taking on increasingly complex and creative tasks previously thought to require human intellect. It could lead to significant productivity gains but also disrupt traditional workforce structures and skill requirements.
From Chatbots to Autonomous Agents
The evolution from current chatbot-style AI to autonomous agents represents a fundamental change in AI capabilities. While chatbots primarily respond to prompts, autonomous agents can proactively plan, reason, and execute complex multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. This shift enables AI to handle more sophisticated workflows, make decisions, and even manage other AI systems or robots. For businesses, this could mean AI systems that can autonomously manage projects, conduct research, or even run entire departments with human oversight, dramatically increasing operational efficiency and innovation potential.
Rapid Automation of Cognitive Tasks
As AI capabilities advance, we're likely to see a rapid acceleration in the automation of cognitive tasks across industries. This goes beyond simple repetitive tasks to include complex analytical work, creative processes, and strategic decision-making. The implications for businesses are profound - entire job categories may be transformed or eliminated, while new roles focused on AI management and oversight emerge. Companies that can effectively leverage this automation wave could gain significant competitive advantages in efficiency, cost reduction, and innovation speed.
Enhanced AI Reasoning and Memory
Improvements in AI reasoning capabilities and "memory" (the ability to retain and apply information over long periods) will lead to AI systems that can engage in more sophisticated problem-solving and long-term planning. This could result in AI assistants that truly understand context, can learn from past interactions, and provide increasingly valuable insights over time. For businesses, this means AI systems that can tackle complex, multi-faceted problems, assist in long-term strategic planning, and provide more nuanced and contextually relevant support across all levels of the organisation.
Breakthroughs in AI Training
Expected breakthroughs in AI training methods, such as more efficient algorithms or novel approaches to data utilisation, could dramatically accelerate AI development and reduce the resources required to create powerful AI systems. This could lower the barriers to entry for AI development and deployment, potentially democratising access to advanced AI capabilities. For businesses, this might mean more accessible and cost-effective AI solutions, enabling even smaller companies to leverage cutting-edge AI technologies to compete with larger enterprises.
2030: The Possibility of 'Superintelligent' Systems
The potential emergence of 'superintelligent' AI systems by 2030 - those significantly surpassing human capabilities across all domains - represents both an enormous opportunity and a significant risk. Such systems could solve currently intractable problems in science, medicine, and technology, driving unprecedented innovation and economic growth. However, they also raise profound ethical, security, and control issues. Businesses need to be prepared for a world where the capabilities of AI may far exceed human understanding, potentially reshaping entire industries and the nature of work itself.
Exponential Economic Growth
The combination of these AI advancements is expected to drive exponential economic growth, potentially far exceeding historical rates. This growth could be fuelled by dramatic increases in productivity, entirely new industries and business models enabled by AI, and breakthrough innovations across all sectors. For businesses, this represents an era of unprecedented opportunity but also intense competition and disruption. Companies that can successfully integrate and leverage these advanced AI capabilities may see explosive growth, while those that fail to adapt risk becoming obsolete at an accelerated pace.
So …. A pretty optimistic view of the future. Or maybe aggressive is a better word. Either way, we need to contemplate it.
Because it might just happen.